Vladimir Putin advisers ‘afraid’ to tell him the truth says UK intelligence director Jeremy Fleming
The director of the UK’s intelligence agency claims Vladimir Putin has misjudged the Ukraine invasion but his advisers are too scared to tell him the truth.
The head of the United Kingdom’s intelligence agency says Russian President Vladimir Putin has “massively misjudged” the war with Ukraine but his advisers are afraid to tell him the truth.
The UK’s Government Communications Headquarters director Jeremy Fleming gave a lengthy speech at the Australian National University on Thursday, targeting Russia and China.
Mr Fleming said Russia had launched an “unprovoked and premeditated attack” on Ukraine 36 days ago, describing it as shocking but not surprising.
“We saw the intelligence picture building and we’re now seeing Putin trying to follow through on his plan, but it is failing and his plan B has been more barbarity against civilians and cities,” he said.
Mr Fleming said the Russian leader played by different moral and legal rules, noting many people had been killed while others had their lives shattered, describing it as a humanitarian crisis.
But Mr Fleming went even further, suggesting Mr Putin had “massively misjudged” the situation.
“He underplayed the economic consequences of the sanctions regime. He over-estimated the abilities of his military to secure a rapid victory,” he said.
“We’ve seen Russian soldiers – short of weapons and morale — refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft.
“And even though we believe Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, what’s going on and the extent of these misjudgements must be crystal clear to the regime.”
Mr Fleming said despite the Russian Ministry of Defence stating it would drastically reduce combat operations around Kyiv and another city, it then launched attacks in both places.
“Mixed messages or deliberate misinformation – we’ll have to see how it unfolds,” he said.
“It all adds up to the strategic miscalculation that our leaders warned Putin it would be.
“It’s become his personal war, with the cost being paid by innocent people in Ukraine and increasingly by ordinary Russians too.”
Mr Fleming said the irony was Ukraine now had a renewed sense of nationhood – something Mr Putin had been trying to avoid.
He also said Mr Putin was facing problems including low morale, logistical failures and high Russian casualties.
“Their command and control is in chaos. We’ve seen Putin lie to his own people in an attempt to hide military incompetence,” Mr Fleming said.
“He seeks brutal control of the media and access to the internet, he seeks the closing down of opposition voices, and he’s making heavy investment in their propaganda and covert agencies.
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